Wednesday, January 18, 2012

My second go at 2012 Oscar Nomination predictions, with my own personal choices thrown in

With less than a week to go before the 2012 Academy Award nominations are to be announced, I felt I owed myself another chance at rejiggering my original predictions, posted so early on December 13th, 2011, which I refused to go back and change as things changed around me. Sites like Kris Tapley's In Contention, John O'Neil's The Envelope and Sasha Stone's Awards Daily readjust their findings all year round, so I thought I would do so, too, especially seeing as my predix came before any guild or Globe announcements (and seeing as how I don't make my bread and butter out of these). I really don't think anybody knows anything until the movies have been seen, anyway (EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, anyone?). To make things even more surprising, I'm throwing into the stir my own VERY honest choices regarding what I think SHOULD be nominated this year. The pictures below point to which films I would like to see win. There are lots of surprises coming up (especially in my personal picks), so pay close attention, you awards mavens you:



BEST PICTURE
THE ARTIST, Thomas Langmann, producer
BRIDESMAIDS, Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel and Clayton Townsend, producers
THE DESCENDANTS, Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, producers
THE HELP, Michael Barnathan, Chris Columbus and Brunson Green, producers
HUGO, Graham King and Martin Scorsese, producers
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, producers
MONEYBALL, Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, producers
WAR HORSE, Kathleen Kennedy and Steven Spielberg, producers

(If there were still only five nominees, it'd be THE ARTIST, THE DESCENDANTS, THE HELP, HUGO and MONEYBALL. But this year, because of the newly-funky Academy rules, I think there'll be eight nominees, so I added BRIDESMAIDS, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS and WAR HORSE. Originally, I had THE TREE OF LIFE in the roster, but I wisely began to think that's wishful thinking on my part. I think BRIDESMAIDS will take its place as this year's popular choice, given that it's been so gung-ho with the guilds. DRAGON TATTOO might slip in, but I'm thinking it's a little too raw. Anyway, the moment I saw the trailer for THE ARTIST, back in late August, I knew that it would be the Oscar winner. Just to let you in on something, when I atteneded the NY Film Festival, in the Green Room, I let everyone know that it would be Best Picture via a phone conversation. I remember giggles there...but, face to face, I told Hazanavicius that his film would be the winner and, though I'm an admirer of darker or thinkier fare, I thanked him for such a delightful bit of substantial candy, which I believe we all need at this time.)

MY CHOICES:
THE ARTIST, Thomas Langmann, producer
BRIDESMAIDS, Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel and Clayton Townsend, producers
MELANCHOLIA, Meta Louise Foldager and Louise Vesth, producers
MONEYBALL, Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, producers
PARADISE LOST 3: PURGATORY, Joe Berlinger, Bruce Sinofsky & Jonathan Silberberg, producers
A SEPARATION, Asghar Farhedi and Negar Eskandarfar, producers
THE TREE OF LIFE, Dede Gardner, Sarah Green, Grant Hill, William Pohlad and Brad Pitt, producers



BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, THE DESCENDANTS
Jean Dujardin, THE ARTIST
Michael Fassbender, SHAME
Gary Oldman, TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
Brad Pitt, MONEYBALL

(Here, I'm sticking with my original lineup. DiCaprio will have to wait for next year's GREAT GATSBY for his next nomination, I think. Still, I'm really sticking my neck out for Oldman and Fassbender here.)

MY CHOICES:
Dominic Cooper, THE DEVIL'S DOUBLE
Jean Dujardin, THE ARTIST
Mel Gibson, THE BEAVER
Peyman Mouadi, A SEPARATION
Brad Pitt, MONEYBALL



BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close, ALBERT NOBBS
Viola Davis, THE HELP
Kirsten Dunst, MELANCHOLIA
Meryl Streep, THE IRON LADY
Michelle Williams, MY WEEK WITH MARILYN

(I originally went with Tilda Swinton instead of Close, but now that Close has landed both SAG and Globe noms, I guess she's going to get in, though she doesn't deserve to. By the way, I'm sticking with my no-guts-no-glory choice of Kirsten Dunst, not only because it's the best lead female perf of the year, but because this Palme D'or winner re-entered the conversation late after her victory with the National Society of Film Critics.)

MY CHOICES:
Juliette Binoche, CERTIFIED COPY
Kirsten Dunst, MELANCHOLIA
Tilda Swinton, WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN
Kristen Wiig, BRIDESMAIDS
Michelle Williams, MY WEEK WITH MARILYN



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Albert Brooks, DRIVE
Jonah Hill, MONEYBALL
Viggo Mortensen, A DANGEROUS METHOD
Nick Nolte, WARRIOR
Christopher Plummer, BEGINNERS

(When I made my first selections, I hadn't seen MONEYBALL, so I found it hard to believe Jonah Hill would get in there. But now his is my favorite supporting actor perf of the year, and he's gotten SAG and Globe noms, so he's definitely in. My daring choice is Mortensen, who was nommed for the Globe, but not for SAG; he was the very best thing about A DANGEROUS METHOD, so I think this is a suitable surprise. I got rid of Pitt for THE TREE OF LIFE--more wishful thinking--and Max Von Sydow, for the sure-to-be-snubbed EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE. But I'm choosing Von Sydow as my #1 pick for a special Oscar next year, which I think he should receive alongside fellow Special Oscar winner Liv Ullmann. Wouldn't that be wonderful?)

MY CHOICES:
Albert Brooks, DRIVE
Jonah Hill, MONEYBALL
Viggo Mortensen, A DANGEROUS METHOD
Brad Pitt, THE TREE OF LIFE
Kiefer Sutherland, MELANCHOLIA



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Berenice Bejo, THE ARTIST
Jessica Chastain, THE HELP
Melissa McCarthy, BRIDESMAIDS
Octavia Spencer, THE HELP
Shailene Woodley, THE DESCENDANTS

(I first thought Bejo would be left out of THE ARTIST's mix, but after SAG and the Globes, where she scored, it's hard to leave her off the list. I originally had Carey Mulligan for SHAME, and still think she might get in there, besting Woodley or McCarthy. But I have a couple of other WAY OUTSIDE hopes I'm rooting for...)

MY CHOICES:
Sareh Bayat, A SEPARATION
Jessica Chastain, THE HELP
Jennifer Ehle, CONTAGION
Melissa McCarthy, BRIDESMAIDS
Octavia Spencer, THE HELP



BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
Michel Hazanavicius, THE ARTIST
Terrence Malick, THE TREE OF LIFE
Alexander Payne, THE DESCENDANTS
Martin Scorsese, HUGO

(I'm sticking with my picks here, even though Fincher will probably get in there for DRAGON TATTOO. I just can't believe the adventurous Directors branch would snub Malick.)

MY CHOICES:
Michel Hazanavicius, THE ARTIST
Terrence Malick, THE TREE OF LIFE
Bennett Miller, MONEYBALL
Lars Von Trier, MELANCHOLIA
Apiatchapong Weerasethakul, UNCLE BOONMEE WHO CAN RECALL HIS PAST LIVES



BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
FOOTNOTE (Israel)
IN DARKNESS (Poland)
MONSUIER LAHZAR (Canada)
PINA (Germany)
A SEPARATION (Iran)

(I originally had Turkey's ONCE UPON A TIME IN ANATOLIA, pictured above, as an entry here, but it's been eliminated by the Academy (which is a crime), so I'm going with the movie from Canada, just because I love Canadian movies...)

MY CHOICES:
FOOTNOTE (Israel)
MISS BALA (Mexico)
ONCE UPON A TIME IN ANATOLIA (Turkey)
PINA (Germany)
A SEPARATION (Iran)



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN
KUNG FU PANDA 2
RANGO
RIO
WINNIE THE POOH


(I'm staying with these, even though PUSS IN BOOTS or CARS 2 might sneak in, probably with one of them replacing TINTIN, which smudges up the animated movie thing with its motion capture--that is, if the Academy doesn't decide to make a giant leap...but if WINNIE THE POOH doesn't make it in here, there are some hard hearts in the Academy.)

MY CHOICES:
PUSS IN BOOTS
RANGO
WINNIE THE POOH




BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Michel Hazanavicius, THE ARTIST
Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, BRIDESMAIDS
Woody Allen, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
Asghar Farhedi, A SEPARATION
Tom McCarthy and Joe Tiboni, WIN WIN

(I deleted THE TREE OF LIFE from this race as well, replacing it with what is certainly the best original screenplay of the year, from Farhedi's A SEPARATION (there's always a foreign entry in the screenplay race anyway). I now think WIN WIN is the weak link here, and might get replaced with 50/50 or YOUNG ADULT.)

MY CHOICES:
Michel Hazanavicius, THE ARTIST
Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, BRIDESMAIDS
Lars Von Trier, MELANCHOLIA
Asghar Farhedi, A SEPARATION
Alexandru Baciu, Radu Muntean, Razvan Radulescu, TUESDAY AFTER CHRISTMAS



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, THE DESCENDANTS
Steven Zallian, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
Tate Taylor, THE HELP
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian and Stan Chervin, MONEYBALL
Lynne Ramsay and Rory Kinnear, WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN

(I first went with WAR HORSE here, but that's not gonna happen, so I replaced it with Zallian's DRAGON TATTOO script, making him a rare double nominee in this category. I'm being adventurous in sticking with WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN, since HUGO is likely to overtake it. But I hated that script so much, I couldn't bring myself to put it amongst my predictions. Hey, the writers are a daredevil bunch, too.)

MY CHOICES:
Christopher Hampton, A DANGEROUS METHOD
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, THE DESCENDANTS
Tate Taylor, THE HELP
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian and Stan Chervin, MONEYBALL
Lynne Ramsay and Rory Kinnear, WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE ARTIST, Guillaume Schiffman
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO, Jeff Cronenweth
HUGO, Robert Richardson
THE TREE OF LIFE, Emmanuel Lubezki
WAR HORSE, Janusz Kaminski

(I'm sticking with this bunch, as they look solid to me.)

MY CHOICES:
THE ARTIST, Guillaume Schiffman
GENERAL ORDERS NO. 9, Robert Persons
MELANCHOLIA, Manuel Alberto Claro
THE TREE OF LIFE, Emmanuel Lubezki
UNCLE BOONMEE WHO CAN RECALL HIS PAST LIVES, Sayombhu Mukdeeprom



BEST ART DIRECTION
ANONYMOUS, Sebastian T. Krawinkel
THE ARTIST, Lawrence Bennett
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS, PART 2, Stuart Craig
HUGO, Dante Ferretti
TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY, Maria Djurkovic

(I see no reason to mess with this bunch, either.)

MY CHOICES:
ANONYMOUS, Sebastian T. Krawinkel
THE ARTIST, Lawrence Bennett
THE DESCENDANTS, Jane Ann Stewart
HUGO, Dante Ferretti
THE TREE OF LIFE, Jack Fisk



BEST COSTUME DESIGN
ANONYMOUS, Lisy Christl
THE ARTIST, Mark Bridges
HUGO, Sandy Powell
IMMORTALS, Eiko Ishioka
JANE EYRE, Michael O'Connor

(I replaced my spiteful choice of MIDNIGHT IN PARIS with Sandy Powell's work in HUGO. Those George Melies sequences became to big to ignore. But PINA was the great costume event of the year.)

MY CHOICES:
ANONYMOUS, Lisy Christl
THE ARTIST, Mark Bridges
HABEMUS PAPUM, Lina Nerli Taviani
IMMORTALS, Eiko Ishioka
PINA, Rolf Börzik and Marion Cito



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
THE ARTIST, Ludovic Bource
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS, PART 2, Alexandre Desplat
HUGO, Howard Shore
WAR HORSE, John Williams

(No reason to mess with these choices, but my personal picks are much different...)

MY CHOICES:
THE ARTIST, Ludovic Bource
CARNAGE, Alexandre Desplat
CONTAGION, Cliff Martinez
FOOTNOTE, Amit Poznansky
THE SKIN I LIVE IN, Alberto Iglasias



BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Hello Hello" from GNOMEO AND JULIET, music by Elton John, lyrics by Bernie Taupin
"The Living Proof" from THE HELP, music by Mary J. Blige, Thomas Newman and Harvey Mason Jr.;
lyrics by Mary J. Blige, Harvey Mason Jr. and Damon Thomas
"Coeur Volant" from HUGO, music by Howard Shore, lyrics by Elizabeth Cotnoir and Isabelle Geffroy
"Life's A Happy Song" from THE MUPPETS, music and lyrics by Bret McKenzie
"So Long" from WINNIE THE POOH, music and lyrics by Zooey Deschanel

(Best Song is such a thorny category to predict that I had to really overhaul my first choices. I originally had only three in there, but it's been a richer year than that. I had to delete "Pictures in My Head" from THE MUPPETS and replaced it with the much more upbeat "Life's a Happy Song." Then I added Elton John and Bernie Taupin's "Hello Hello" from the forgotten GNOMEO AND JULIET, because it sounded good, I like that legendary duo (this will be Taupin's first nom), and it got a Globe nom. Then my surprise choice (other than HUGO's "Coeur Volant") is Zooey Dechanel's "So Long" from WINNIE THE POOH, which I think would be a wonderful choice. But that drek from ALBERT NOBBS could sneak in here...)

MY CHOICES:
"Coeur Volant" from HUGO, music by Howard Shore, lyrics by Elizabeth Cotnoir and Isabelle Geffroy
“Sparkling Day” from ONE DAY, music and lyrics by Elvis Costello
"Life's A Happy Song" from THE MUPPETS, music and lyrics by Bret McKenzie
"Masterpiece" from W.E., music & lyrics By: Madonna, Julie Frost and Jimmy Harry
"So Long" from WINNIE THE POOH, music and lyrics by Zooey Deschanel



BEST EDITING
THE ARTIST, Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO, Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
HUGO, Thelma Schoonmaker
MONEYBALL, Christopher Tellefsen
WAR HORSE, Michael Kahn

(No need to fiddle with this lineup.)

MY CHOICES:
THE ARTIST, Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
BRIDESMAIDS, William Kerr and Mike Sale
MONEYBALL, Christopher Tellefsen
PARADISE LOST 3: PURGATORY, Alyse Ardell Spiegel
THE TREE OF LIFE, Hank Corwin, Jay Rabinowitz, Daniel Rezende, Billy Weber and Mark Yoshikawa



BEST SOUND MIXING
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS, PART 2
HUGO
MISSION IMPOSSIBLE: GHOST PROTOCOL
SUPER 8
WAR HORSE


(I had to add HARRY POTTER and MISSION IMPOSSIBLE in here, deleting THE TREE OF LIFE and TRANSFORMERS)

MY CHOICES:
RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
SUPER 8
UNCLE BOONMEE WHO CAN RECALL HIS PAST LIVES
TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON
THE TREE OF LIFE




BEST SOUND (EFFECTS) EDITING
MISSION IMPOSSIBLE: GHOST PROTOCOL
RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
SUPER 8
TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON
WAR HORSE


(Here, I deleted HUGO in place of MISSION IMPOSSIBLE)

MY CHOICES:
THE ARTIST
RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
SUPER 8
TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON
WAR HORSE




BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS, PART 2
HUGO
RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON
THE TREE OF LIFE


(This seems like the ultimate grouping to me. I really hope to see THE TREE OF LIFE's inventivive use of effects on here, as Douglas Trumbull has already been given the Gordon E. Sawyer lifetime achievement award this year.)

MY CHOICES:
HUGO
MELANCHOLIA
RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON
THE TREE OF LIFE




BEST MAKEUP
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS, PART 2
THE IRON LADY
GAINSBOURG: A HEROIC LIFE

(Thankfully, J. EDGAR has been eliminated from the running, as has PIRATES, so I replaced them with the obvious winner THE IRON LADY (the old age makeup here is truly astonishing) and with the wow makeup for the little-seen GAINSBOURG.)


MY CHOICES:
ANONYMOUS
THE IRON LADY
GAINSBOURG: A HEROIC LIFE




BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BILL CUNNINGHAM NEW YORK
BUCK
PARADISE LOST 3: PURGATORY
PROJECT NIM
WE WERE HERE


(Sticking with these, and hoping that Berlinger and Sinofsky win for their magnificent, earth-shaking achievement with the PARADISE LOST series.)


MY CHOICES:
THE AUTOBIOGRAPHY OF NICOLAI CEAUCESCU
BUCK
GEORGE HARRISON: LIVING IN THE MATERIAL WORLD
PARADISE LOST 3: PURGATORY
PROJECT NIM




BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
GOD IS THE BIGGER ELVIS
IN TAHIR SQUARE: 18 DAYS OF EGYPT'S UNFINISHED REVOLUTION
INCIDENT IN NEW BAGHDAD
PIPE DREAMS
THE TSUNAMI AND THE CHERRY BLOSSOM

(And these as well, and no personal choices from me, though the pic is from TAHIR, which looks like the strongest choice to me...)




BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
JE POURRAIS ETRE VOTRE GRAND-MERE (I Could Be Your Grandmother)
LOVE AT FIRST SIGHT
RAJU
THE SHORE
TIME FREAK

(I've seen all the trailers from the final entries, and these look like the right ones. The first one seems the best. I made no predictions on this category first time around, but after seeing the trailers, JE POURRAIS ETRE VOTRE GRAND-MERE looks like the most vibrant choice; by the way, I think Jordan Vogt-Roberts' SUCCESSFUL ALCOHOLICS should have been included here.)




BEST ANIMATED SHORT
THE FANTASTIC FLYING BOOKS OF MR. MORRIS LESSMORE
I TAWT I TAW A PUDDY TAT
LA LUNA
PATHS OF HATE
SPECKY FOUR EYES

(I replaced WILD LIFE with PATHS OF HATE here, for no reason other than PATHS OF HATE seemed like a more fascinating title to me. No personal choices made here. But I think, finally, Pixar
will come out on top this year with LA LUNA, just so we can forget about CARS 2.)

THEY ARE WHAT THEY ARE...now tell me truly...if the movies I picked to win each individual award actually won, would you be mad?? Wouldn't these personal choices of mine electrically enliven the Oscars, which--let's be real here--needs some serious ass goosing??? Be real now...

So now I WILL be real. Though I think THE TREE OF LIFE is the Best Picture of the year, with MELANCHOLIA close behind, I'm totally happy with THE ARTIST capturing everything in its purview. So what does that say about me?

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