My Gut Predictions for the 2013 Academy Award Nominations

Okay, so now it's time to examine the year in film (at least, as far as the Academy Awards are concerned).  I see it as a three-pronged approach....

The first is the usual...these are the ones that are going to make it in to the top, if we were still dealing with an initial five:

ARGO

LES MISERABLES

LINCOLN

SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

 ZERO DARK THIRTY

Then we have the strong upcomers:

AMOUR

BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD  

THE MASTER

MOONRISE KINGDOM

LIFE OF PI

Then we have the final slight hopefuls...

ANNA KARININA

THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL 

DJANGO UNCHAINED 

THE PROMISED LAND

THE SESSIONS

In the end, it'll be:

Best Picture
ARGO
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL 
DJANGO UNCHAINED
LES MISERABLES
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
THE MASTER
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
ZERO DARK THIRTY

Best Director:
Ben Affleck for ARGO
Kathryn Bigelow for ZERO DARK THIRTY
David O. Russell for SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Quentin Tarantino for DJANGO UNCHAINED
Steven Spielberg for LINCOLN

Best Actor:
Bradley Cooper for SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Daniel Day-Lewis for LINCOLN
John Hawkes for THE SESSIONS
Joachin Phoenix for THE MASTER
Denzel Washington for FLIGHT

Best Actress:
Jessica Chastain for ZERO DARK THIRTY
Marion Cotillard for RUST AND BONE
Jennifer Lawrence for SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Quavenzene Wallis for BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
Naomi Watts for THE IMPOSSIBLE

Best Supporting Actor:
Robert De Niro for SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Leonardo Di Caprio for DJANGO UNCHAINED
Philip Seymour Hoffman for THE MASTER
Tommy Lee Jones for LINCOLN
Matthew McConaughey for MAGIC MIKE

Best Supporting Actress:
Ann Dowd for COMPLIANCE
Anne Hathaway for LES MISERABLES
Sally Field for LINCOLN
Helen Hunt for THE SESSIONS
Maggie Smith for THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL

Best Original Screenplay:
Paul Thomas Anderson for THE MASTER
Mark Boal for ZERO DARK THIRTY
Michael Haneke for AMOUR
Rian Johnson for LOOPER
Quentin Tarantino for DJANGO UNCHAINED

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Tony Kuschner for LINCOLN
David Magee for LIFE OF PI
David O. Russell for SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
Chris Terio for ARGO
Benh Zeitlin and Lucy Alibar for BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD

For Best Cinematography:
Danny Cohen, LES MISERABLES
Roger Deakins, SKYFALL
Grieg Frasier, ZERO DARK THIRTY
Mihai Malaimmare Jr., THE MASTER
Claudio Miranda, LIFE OF PI

Best Production Design: 
ANNA KARININA
CLOUD ATLAS
LES MISERABLES
LINCOLN
THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY

Best Costume Design:
ARGO
ANNA KARININA
CLOUD ATLAS
LES MISERABLES
LINCOLN

Best Original Score: 
Behn Zeitlin and Dan Rohmer, BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
Reinhold Heil and Johnny Klimek, CLOUD ATLAS
Mychael Danna, LIFE OF PI
John Williams, LINCOLN
Johnny Greenwood, THE MASTER

Best Original Song: 
"Suddenly" from LES MISERABLES
"Skyfall" from SKYFALL
"Still Alive" from PAUL WILLIAMS STILL ALIVE
"Song of the Lonely Mountain" from THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
"From Here to the Moon and Back" from JOYFUL NOISE

For Best Editing: 
ARGO
CLOUD ATLAS
LINCOLN
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
ZERO DARK THIRTY

For Best Sound (Mixing):
THE AVENGERS
THE DARK KNIGHT RISES
LES MISERABLES
LOOPER
ZERO DARK THIRTY

For Best Sound Effects (Editing)
THE AVENGERS
THE DARK KNIGHT RISES
LIFE OF PI
SKYFALL
ZERO DARK THIRTY

For Best Visual Effects: 
THE AVENGERS
THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
JOHN CARTER
LIFE OF PI
PROMETHEUS

For Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
LES MISERABLES
LINCOLN

For Best Animated Feature: 
BRAVE
FRANKENWEENIE
PARANORMAN
THE RABBI'S CAT
WRECK-IT RALPH
 
Best Documentary Feature:
5 BROKEN CAMERAS
AI WEIWEI: NEVER SORRY
THE INVISIBLE WAR
HOW TO SURVIVE A PLAGUE
SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN

Have I missed anything?  Please tell me...

Film #151: MAGIC MIKE

Upon its release to DVD, I feel the need here to recommend MAGIC MIKE to all.  Women and gay men, I feel, will have no problem with this, and I get it, because it's gonna be categorical party fun for them.  But I also want to talk it up to those guys that resolutely don't wanna witness a buncha ripped dudes disrobing to their skivvies.  Look, I get this, too.  I'm straight, and I felt slightly weird walking into the theater to see it by myself.  But I dropped that ignorance like a hot rad cap on a summer's day, and pretty much loved the movie from the get-go.  Director Steve Soderburgh portrays the stripping biz more honestly than any likened female-driven movie has even bothered to do (usually, in movies, nudie gals are portrayed as on the proverbial downward spiral).  Here, this pursuit is seen as an often fun, sexy, taxing, limited, perilous, means-to-an-end profession.  And it's portrayed in a way that pays stark attention to the tides of its characters' situations and emotions, as well as to its vibrantly Florida-slathered atmosphere.

MAGIC MIKE can seem plotless, but that's good.  It means attention is paid more to character, dialogue, emotion and setting (if there's one downtick, it's screenwriter Reid Carolyn's forced injection of  a thudding and preachy third-act drug plot).  Channing Tatum, as the learned, stand-up title character, is superb in the lead (look, even as fit as he is--and even if it is based on Tatum's experiences as a real-life dances--it takes guts to get up there and gyrate like that while, offstage, displaying a life-embracing personality; his is a brave, hearty, physical performance). Alex Pettyfer plays his desperate, quasi-likable lazy-ass charge well, and the terrific Cody Horn, as Pettyfer's on-the-fence sister, is a worthy match for Mike.  I equally like wrestler Kevin Nash as the one guy in the chorus line that can't dance worth shit--and, thankfully, no one ever says a word to him about it.  And, as the final jab, there's Matthew McConaughey who's re-energized his career this year with this and KILLER JOE. His assured performance as the friendly but demanding club's owner/operator/MC is immutable.  This is the sort of character he plays best--sickeningly egotistical, and yet successful, fun to be around, talented, apparently level-headed, and a little scary.  I don't see how anyone can question that this is an Oscar-possible performance.

Above all, while watching MAGIC MIKE, I found my cheeks aching from smiling so at the joy all these wonderfully diverse women were having soaking in that naughty, alcohol-and-flesh-sodden sort of fun that men are by rote expected to devour. (And, by the way, there are scads of delicious ladies in the movie, including the stunning Riley Keough--Elvis Presley's granddaughter, I should point out--who provides some late-film rewards to guys who've made it thus far).  I find MAGIC MIKE to be Soderburgh's most ecstatic movie--I only wish that there could be made a female-driven stripping film that had so much verve, while remaining so compassionate.  Ultimately, it's a well-photographed (by Soderburgh, under his "Peter Andrews" alter-ego) and tremendously good-hearted peer into another world.  And, indeed, I resisted it for a long time, but Channing Tatum--despite his annoying name--is a promising screen presence. I hope he hits further notes later in his career, but this film gives me a sense he's going to give it a go.  He has a smashing scene with a smitten but immoveable bank loan manager that is, frankly, revelatory.