My 2009 Academy Award Predictions: round one

NOTE: I originally had THE DARK KNIGHT as a winner of 10 noms, including Best Picture, but I have recently vascillated back to my pre-awards season conviction that it's not yet time for a superhero movie to win a best pic nod (this got me into a lot of hot water with some of the more vociferous lovers of the Batman, who often confuse fan favoritism with award-worthiness). I was once convinced by many on-line lovers of this movie that TDK's quality was too high to be ignored by the Academy. But, save for Heath Ledger's performance, it does seem to have been ignored by the Golden Globes, the SAG awards, and the critics' groups. So I'm knocking it off my list and replacing it with FROST/NIXON. And I very well may be soon replacing WALL-E with DOUBT. But not yet.

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (10)
Frost/Nixon (6)
Milk (5)
Slumdog Millionaire (7)
Wall-E (8)

BEST ACTOR
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino (1)
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor (1)
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler (3)

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married (2)
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky (4)
Melissa Leo, Frozen River (1)
Meryl Streep, Doubt (4)
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road (3)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder (2)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight (5)
Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, Vicki Cristina Barcelona (2)
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader (1)

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Finscher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Gus Van Sant, Milk

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh
Milk, Dustin Lance Black
Rachel Getting Married, Jenny Lumet
Vicki Cristina Barcelona, Woody Allen
Wall-E, original story by Pete Docter & Andrew Stanton; screenplay by Jim Reardon & Andrew Stanton

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Screenplay by Eric Roth; Screen Story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord, based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley, based on his play
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan, based on his play
Revolutionary Road, Justin Haythe, based on the novel by Richard Yates
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy, based on the book Q&A by Vikas Swarup

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Australia (2)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Fall (3)
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST ART DIRECTION
Australia
The Fall
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of The Crystal Skull (3)
Synecdoche, NY (2)
Wall-E

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess (1)
The Fall
Revolutionary Road

BEST SOUND
The Dark Knight
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of The Crystal Skull
Iron Man (3)
Wall-E

BEST EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of The Crystal Skull
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Down to Earth," Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman, Wall-E
"The Wrestler," Bruce Springsteen, The Wrestler
"I Want It All," Gerrard, Matthew; Nevil, Robbie, High School Musical 3 (1)
"Jai Ho," A.R. Rahman and Gulzar, Slumdog Millionaire
"I Thought I Lost You," Miley Cyrus and Jeffrey Steele, Bolt (1)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Iron Man

BEST MAKEUP
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Synecdoche, NY
Tropic Thunder

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Wall-E

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Kung Fu Panda (1)
Wall-E
Waltz With Bashir (2)

BEST FOREIGN FILM
The Class (France) (1)
The Friend (Switzerland) (1)
Gomorrah (Italy) (1)
Tony Manero (Chile)(1)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)(1)

BEST DOCUMENTARY—FEATURE
Fuel (1)
The Garden (1)
I.O.U.S.A. (1)
Man on Wire (1)
Trouble the Waters (1)

Okay, that all looks right to me (note: post SAG and Golden Globe noms, I updated this list two times: once on Dec. 16, and again on Dec. 23).