Thursday, February 21, 2013

FINAL Oscar Predictions for 2013

PICTURE: ARGO (Ben Affleck) (Who could have predicted this in the fall?  I, personally, was set on LINCOLN.  But it is...)
SHOULD WIN: THE MASTER (followed by, in descending order): Zero Dark Thirty (Kathryn Bigelow), Compliance (Craig Zobel), Cloud Atlas (Andy and Lara Wachowski and Tom Tykwer), Damsels in Distress (Whit Stillman), Beasts of the Southern Wild (Behn Zeitlin), Take This Waltz (Sarah Polley), Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell), Bernie (Richard Linklater)

NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE PICTURE: AMOUR (Michael Haneke) (It's posible something less chancy could sneak in here, but any other choice seems like a longshot).
SHOULD WIN: ONCE UPON A TIME IN ANATOLIA (Nuri Bilge Ceylan), (followed by, in descending order): Oslo August 31st (Joachim Trier), Amour (Michael Haneke), Footnote (Joseph Cedar), Holy Motors (Leos Carax), The Kid with a Bike (Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne), 5 Broken Cameras (Emad Bernat and Guy Davidi), Goodbye First Love (Mia Hansen-Love)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN (Malik Bendjelloul) (A love fest if there ever was one, and one that swells the heart of even the most hardened of movie and music lovers, too; an absolute winner)
SHOULD WIN: SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN (Malik Bendjelloul) (2nd: Player Hating: A Love Story (Maggie Hadleigh-West), followed by 5 Broken Cameras (Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi); The Invisible War (Kirby Dick); The Queen of Versailles (Lauren Greenfield); West of Memphis (Amy Berg)

DIRECTOR: Steven Spielberg, LINCOLN (Where do we go from here?  LINCOLN was the frontrunner in picture, but now it's the underdog, and so Spielberg has to be the winner.)
SHOULD WIN: Nuri Bilge Ceylan, ONCE UPON A TIME IN ANATOLIA (2nd: Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master, followed by: Michael Haneke, Amour; Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty; Craig Zobel, Compliance; Joachim Trier, Oslo August 31st)

ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis, LINCOLN (The lockiest of locks that have ever been locked.)
SHOULD WIN: Joaquin Phoenix, THE MASTER (2nd: Anders Danielsen Lie, Oslo August 31st, followed by: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master; Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln; Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour; Jack Black, Bernie)

ACTRESS: Emannuelle Riva, AMOUR (Lawrence is a bear, but Riva has the moment!)
SHOULD WIN: Ann Dowd, COMPLIANCE (2nd: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty; Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz; Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook; Qu'Venzane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild)

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Robert De Niro, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (Everyone wants to see De Niro up there, and we have to admit, he's the heart of the movie. Plus...Harvey has been working overtime on this one...)
SHOULD WIN: Matthew McConaughey, MAGIC MIKE (2nd: Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained, followed by: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook; Lior Ashkenazi, Footnote; Jim Broadbent, Cloud Atlas; Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway, LES MISERABLES (Deserved and certain)
SHOULD WIN: Amy Adams, THE MASTER, followed by: Helen Hunt, The Sessions; Rosemary DeWitt, Your Sister’s Sister; Anne Hathaway, The Dark Knight Rises)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Mark Boal, ZERO DARK THIRTY (A difficult choice.   Some go for Tarantino, but that script was too fatty; some might go for Haneke, but how can THAT movie win three Oscars in one night?  I go for this one!  Difficult, exciting, and chancy!  Still...a difficult category to pick.)
SHOULD WIN: Paul Thomas Anderson, THE MASTER (2nd: Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty, followed by Craig Zobel, Compliance; Michael Haneke, Amour; Ebruy Ceylan, Nuri Bilge Ceylan and Ercan Kasal, Once Upon A Time In Anatolia; Whit Stillman, Damsels in Distress)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Chris Terrio, ARGO (Kuschner's LINCOLN could upset, but ARGO has the wind going its way)
SHOULD WIN: Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, OSLO AUGUST 31st (2nd: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook, followed by Richard Linklater and Skip Hollandsworth, Bernie; Andy Wachowski, Lara Wachowski and Tom Tykwer, Cloud Atlas; Tony Kushner, Lincoln; Tracy Letts, Killer Joe)

CINEMATOGRAPHY: Roger Deakins, SKYFALL (Only LIFE OF PI, running a recent CGI-influenced history, could get in the way of Deakins, who has gone beyond earning his first Oscar after 10 tries)
SHOULD WIN: Mihai Malaimaire Jr., THE MASTER (2nd: Gokhan Tiriaki, Once Upon A Time in Anatolia, followed by: Roger Deakins, Skyfall; John Toll and Frank Griebe, Cloud Atlas; Robert Richardson, Django Unchained; Grieg Fraser, Zero Dark Thirty)

ART DIRECTION: ANNA KARININA (Take a look and you know it deserves it)
SHOULD WIN: CLOUD ATLAS followed by Anna Karinina, The Master, Moonrise Kingdom, Lincoln, Skyfall

COSTUME DESIGN: ANNA KARININA (Again, you know it deserves it)
SHOULD WIN: CLOUD ATLAS, followed by Moonrise Kingdom, The Master, Anna Karinina, Lincoln, Mirror Mirror

FILM EDITING: ARGO (The editing is what made it work.  Plus one of the editors, William Goldenberg, is also nominated for ZERO DARK THIRTY, which...
SHOULD WIN: ZERO DARK THIRTY, followed by: Cloud Atlas, Argo, Compliance, The Master, Skyfall

SOUND MIXING: LES MISERABLES (The singing was recorded live, which was a singular achievement...)
SHOULD WIN: DJANGO UNCHAINED, followed by Zero Dark Thirty, The Master, The Avengers, Skyfall, Flight

SOUND EFFECTS EDITING: LIFE OF PI (the obvious winner for Best Visual Effects, so...)

SCORE: Michael Dynna, LIFE OF PI (A first time nominee, but a well-loved cohort, working in a movie that gives him much leeway!)
SHOULD WIN: Johnny Greenwood, THE MASTER (2nd: Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek and Tom Tykwer, Cloud Atlas, followed by Heather McIntosh, Compliance; Benh Zeitlin and Dan Rohmer, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Mike Suozzo, Damsels in Distress; Alexandre Desplat, Moonrise Kingdom)

ORIGINAL SONG: Skyfall” from SKYFALL (music and lyrics by Adele and Paul Epworth) (The first Bond film to win Best Song?  And on the 50th year?  Gimme a break.  Nothing else has a chance.)
SHOULD WIN: “Looking for a Sign” from JEFF WHO LIVES AT HOME (music and lyrics by Beck Hansen) (2nd: “Metaphorical Blanket” from Any Day Now (music and lyrics by Rufus Wainwright); “Who Were We?” from Holy Motors (music by Neil Hannon, lyrics by Leos Carax and Neil Hannon); “Who Did That To You? from Django Unchained (music and lyrics by John Legend); “Before My Time” from Chasing Ice (music and lyrics by J. Ralph); “Anything Made of Paper” from West of Memphis (music and lyrics by Bill Carter and Ruth Ellsworth))

SPECIAL EFFECTS: LIFE OF PI (clearly, this is one of the locks of the night.)
SHOULD WIN: CLOUD ATLAS followed by The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, Life of Pi, Prometheus, The Impossible

HAIR AND MAKEUP: LES MISERABLES (nothing else has a chance)
SHOULD WIN: HOLY MOTORS, followed by Lincoln, Cloud Atlas, Rock of Ages, Django Unchained, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

ANIMATED FEATURE: WRECK-IT RALPH (FRANKENWEENIE was a bust financially, or else it would have won.  This one is smart, charming, and creative on all fronts.)
SHOULD WIN: WRECK-IT RALPH, followed by Frankenweenie, The Pirates: Band of Misfits

DOCUMENTARY SHORT: INNOCENTE (Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine) (moving and well filmed)

LIVE ACTION SHORT: BUZKASHI BOYS (Sam Franch and Ariel Nasr) (totally in the wheelhouse of this category, historically)

ANIMATED SHORT: PAPERMAN (John Kahrs) (A perfect blend of computer and traditional animation, moving, and a widely seen crowdpleaser.)

My choices are made.   A VERY difficult year.  But I die and, ultimiately, live by these.  See you on Sunday! 


Wayne said...

Nice Dean. I agree with your picks:)

Ethan Hunt said...

Nice list Dean! But I think you made a mistake in the foreign film category, didn't " The Kid with a Bike " already get nominated last year?

Martin Bradley said...

A terrific post, Dean, both in presentation and in predictions. As you know I am really with you on THE MASTER though I would have Hoffman as my personal should win and, much as like her, I can't go with Adams on this one. Helen Hunt would be my personal favourite.

Dean Treadway said...

Surprisingly, THE KID WITH A BIKE did not get nommed for the Oscar. It did, however, get a Golden Globe nomination. But it was not released into theaters stateside until early 2012. By the way, thanks for all the good words, you guys!

Mark Johnson said...

Great predix! I love the pictures you chose as well. We have a few similarities, so I hope we both hit on those! Most of our differences, you went with the one I almost did, so I can't argue with any of your picks. Best of luck in any pools you are in!