My predictions for the 2010 Oscar Nominations

Here we are again--time for the Oscar nominations to be announced on Tuesday, February 2nd at 8:30 EST/5:30 PST. Now, after all the guild awards, critics awards and those pesky Golden Globes, lots of these picks are foregone conclusions. But I think we'll be seeing a few surprises here and there, particularly in those tech categories, where there's always a "whaaaa?" inclusion (I really wanted to include Bruno in the Best Costume Design lineup, but I really don't see it happening, much as I would love it).

Lemme tell you, with Best Picture this year, expanding the race to 10 made it a little more difficult to come up with a viable list (let's just say 2009 was NOT the year during which to start this little experiment). But looks like the genre movie fans are gonna get their wish--all three of the major sci-fi films this year will likely make the cut (though it really pains me to include District 9 in the top slot, since I despised that movie almost as much as I did Avatar; however, I did love me some Star Trek, and I think it'll easily make the final cut). Luckily, Kathryn Bigelow's coming in to save the day with her underseen masterpiece The Hurt Locker, which is virtually locking the hurt on the other nominees (sorry--hadda have a pun there). I think the big surprise will be the inclusion of Crazy Heart in the Best Picture race (it's a latecomer that smalls like prime Oscar material; I really think it'll rack up at least five nominations, including one for Maggie Gyllenhaal in the supporting actress race).

I also think Michael Haneke's The White Ribbon has a good shot at at least three nominations (including one for the Haneke/Carriere script). And The Young Victoria will get three nods, I think, while the once high-flying Nine will only get two, maybe three nods, tops. The lead acting nods will match the Screen Actors Guild picks, while the supporting categories will hold some shocks (like the dropping of Stanley Tucci from Oscar consideration for The Lovely Bones AND Julie and Julia). Eastwood's Invictus once looked like an easy pick, but I can't see it only getting Best Pic and Best Actor nominations (I don't think it'll fit into any other categories), so I reluctantly handed its Picture slot to District 9. Otherwise, the other nine picks seem pretty solid to me (no way is the Coens' brilliant A Serious Man getting a Picture nom--much too esoteric for the Academy; a screenplay nod is all it'll manage).

By the way, as a side note: if you look at my picks for last year, you'll see that I predicted correctly THREE of the Special Award recipients for this year: Lauren Bacall, Gordon Willis, and Roger Corman (I missed the estimable John Calley for the Thalberg award). Next year, you can count on Peter Bogdanovich and James Ivory being in the mix, with maybe Albert Finney in there as well. Oh, and I didn't bother predicting the short film categories, since I haven't seen a short list of the eligible movies.

Anyway, enough of my yappin'. Here are the nominees, as I see them being announced on 2/2/10:

BEST PICTURE
Avatar (James Cameron and Jon Landau, producers)
Crazy Heart (T-Bone Burnett, Scott Cooper and Robert Duvall, producers)
District 9 (Carolynne Cunningham and Peter Jackson, producers)
An Education (Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, producers)
The Hurt Locker (Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicholas Chartier and Greg Shapiro, producers)
Inglourious Basterds (Lawrence Bender, producer)
Precious (Lee Daniels, Gary Magness and Sarah Siegel-Magness, producers)
Star Trek (J.J. Abrams and Damon Lindelof, producers)
Up (Jonas Rivera, producer)
Up in the Air (Jeffrey Clifford, Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, producers)

BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alec Baldwin, It's Complicated
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Vera Farminga, Up In The Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique, Precious

BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Hurt Locker (Screenplay by Mark Boal)
Inglourious Basterds (Screenplay by Quentin Tarantino)
A Serious Man (Screenplay by Joel and Ethan Coen)
Up (Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson and Thomas McCarthy; screenplay by Bob Peterson and Pete Docter)
The White Ribbon (Screenplay by Jean-Claude Carriere and Michael Haneke)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Crazy Heart (Screenplay by Scott Cooper, based on the book by Thomas Cobb)
An Education (Screenplay by Nick Hornby, based on the book by Lynn Barber)
The Fantastic Mr. Fox (Screenplay by Wes Anderson and Noah Baumbach, based on the book by Roald Dahl)
Precious (Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher, based on the book Push by Sapphire)
Up In The Air (Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, based on the book by Walter Kim)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Coraline
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Ponyo
The Princess and the Frog
Up

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Ajami (Israel)
A Prophet (France)
The Secret in Their Eyes (Argentina)
The White Ribbon (Germany)
The World is Big and Salvation Lurks Around the Corner (Bulgaria)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar (Mauro Fiore)
Bright Star (Grieg Fraser)
The Hurt Locker (Barry Ackroyd)
Inglourious Basterds (Robert Richardson)
The White Ribbon (Christian Berger)

BEST ART DIRECTION
Avatar (Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg)
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Stuart Craig; Stephanie McMillan)
Sherlock Holmes (Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer)
Star Trek (Scott Chambliss; Karen Manthey)
The Young Victoria (Patrice Vermette; Maggie Gray)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Coco Before Chanel (Catherine Leterrier)
An Education (Odile Dicks-Mireaux)
Nine (Colleen Atwood)
Sherlock Holmes (Jenny Beavan)
The Young Victoria (Sandy Powell)

BEST FILM EDITING
Avatar (John Refoua, Stephen E. Rivkin)
The Hurt Locker (Chris Innis, Bob Murawski)
Inglourious Basterds (Sally Menke)
Star Trek (Maryann Brandon, Mary Jo Markey)
Up in the Air (Dana E. Glauberman)

BEST SOUND (EFFECTS) EDITING
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek
Transformer 2: Rise of the Machines
Up

BEST SOUND MIXING
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformer 2: Rise of the Machines
2012

BEST MAKEUP
District 9
Star Trek
The Young Victoria

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Somebody Else” from Crazy Heart (Music and lyrics by Stephen Bruton and T-Bone Burnett)
"The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart (Music and lyrics by T-Bone Burnett and Ryan Bingham)
“You’ve Got Me Wrapped Around Your Little Finger” from An Education (Music and lyrics by Beth Rowley)
“(I Want To) Come Home” from Everybody’s Fine (Music and lyrics by Paul McCartney)
“Cinema Italiano” from Nine (Music and lyrics by Maury Yeston)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Avatar (James Horner)
The Fantastic Mr. Fox (Alexandre Desplat)
The Informant! (Marvin Hamlisch)
Public Enemies (Elliot Goldenthal)
Up (Michael Giacchino)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Beaches of Agnes
The Cove
Food, Inc.
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
Mugabe and the White African