Given that you know from my Top 40 Movies of 2010 article what I thought were the best movies of last year, I'll contain my griping and complaining about what was left off this year's Oscar nomination roll. I will say this: as much as I like The King's Speech, we all know that The Social Network is the better, more important film. Nevertheless, Fincher's film will probably lose out to the more Academy-friendly film from Britain. Still, boy howdy, would I love to see an upset. I still think that this will be a year where the picture and director awards will split, with Best Director going to David Fincher. And I do have to mention the three absolute crimes comitted this year: not nominating Greta Gerwig for her supporting turn in Greenberg, Andrew Garfield for supporting actor in The Social Network, and Lee Smith for his unparalleled cutting of Inception. Anyway, I have included, after each category, my picks of what should have been nominated, what should rightfully win, what has a slight chance of eking ahead of the frontrunner (except in the case of absolute locks on the category in question), and my prediction of what WILL win. We'll see what happens, of course, on Sunday night! Mark your ballots appropriately, and here we go:
PICTURE
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Greenberg
SHOULD WIN: The Social Network
MIGHT WIN: The Social Network
WILL WIN: The King's Speech
DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
Joel & Ethan Coen - True Grit
David Fincher - The Social Network
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
David O. Russell - The Fighter
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Apichatpong Weerasethakul -- Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives
SHOULD WIN: David Fincher -- The Social Network
MIGHT WIN: Tom Hooper -- The King's Speech
WILL WIN: David Fincher - The Social Network
ACTOR
Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
James Franco - 127 Hours
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Ben Stiller -- Greenberg
SHOULD WIN: Colin Firth -- The King's Speech
MIGHT WIN: This one is a lock.
WILL WIN: Colin Firth -- The King's Speech
ACTRESS
Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Emma Stone -- Easy A
SHOULD WIN: Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine
MIGHT WIN: Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
WILL WIN: Natalie Portman - Black Swan
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale - The Fighter
John Hawkes - Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner - The Town
Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Andrew Garfield -- The Social Network
SHOULD WIN: Christian Bale - The Fighter
MIGHT WIN: This one is a lock.
WILL WIN: Christian Bale - The Fighter
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams - The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Greta Gerwig -- Greenberg
SHOULD WIN: Amy Adams - The Fighter
MIGHT WIN: Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
WILL WIN: Melissa Leo - The Fighter
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mike Leigh - Another Year
Scott Silver & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson - The Fighter
Christopher Nolan - Inception
Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg - The Kids Are All Right
David Seidler - The King's Speech
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Noah Baumbach and Jennifer Jason Leigh -- Greenberg
SHOULD WIN: Mike Leigh - Another Year
MIGHT WIN: Christopher Nolan - Inception
WILL WIN: David Seidler - The King's Speech
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy - 127 Hours
Aaron Sorkin - The Social Network
Michael Arndt - Toy Story 3
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - True Grit
Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini - Winter's Bone
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Roman Polanski and Robert Harris-- The Ghost Writer
SHOULD WIN: Aaron Sorkin - The Social Network
MIGHT WIN: This one is a lock.
WILL WIN: Aaron Sorkin - The Social Network
ANIMATED FEATURE
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: My Dog Tulip
SHOULD WIN: The Illusionist
MIGHT WIN: Another lock...
WILL WIN: Toy Story 3
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Biutiful (Mexico)
Dogtooth (Greece)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Incendies (Canada)
Outside the Law (Algeria)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives (Thailand)
SHOULD WIN: Dogtooth (Greece)
MIGHT WIN: Incendies (Canada)
WILL WIN: In a Better World (Denmark)
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Matthew Libatique - Black Swan
Wally Pfister - Inception
Danny Cohen - The King's Speech
Jeff Cronenweth - The Social Network
Roger Deakins - True Grit
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Grieg Fraser -- Let Me In
SHOULD WIN: Roger Deakins - True Grit
MIGHT WIN: Danny Cohen - The King's Speech
WILL WIN: Roger Deakins - True Grit
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Boxing Gym
SHOULD WIN: Inside Job
MIGHT WIN: Restropo
WILL WIN: Inside Job
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang
SHOULD WIN: Killing in the Name
MIGHT WIN: Strangers No More
WILL WIN: Killing in the Name
ANIMATED SHORT
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let's Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, a Journey Diary
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Marcel The Shell With Shoes On
SHOULD WIN: Let's Pollute
MIGHT WIN: Madagascar, a Journey Diary
WILL WIN: Let's Pollute
LIVE-ACTION SHORT
The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143
SHOULD WIN: God of Love
MIGHT WIN: God of Love
WILL WIN: Na Wewe
VISUAL EFFECTS
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World
SHOULD WIN: Inception
MIGHT WIN: This is a lock.
WILL WIN: Inception
ART DIRECTION
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Social Network
SHOULD WIN: Inception
MIGHT WIN: Alice in Wonderland
WILL WIN: The King's Speech
COSTUME DESIGN
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Agora
SHOULD WIN: The Tempest
MIGHT WIN: Alice in Wonderland
WILL WIN: The King's Speech
MAKEUP
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolf Man
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Let Me In
SHOULD WIN: The Wolf Man
MIGHT WIN: Barney's Version
WILL WIN: The Wolf Man
FILM EDITING
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Inception
SHOULD WIN: The Social Network
MIGHT WIN: The King's Speech
WILL WIN: The Social Network
SOUND MIXING
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Black Swan
SHOULD WIN: Inception
MIGHT WIN: True Grit
WILL WIN: Inception
SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World
SHOULD WIN: Inception
MIGHT WIN: True Grit
WILL WIN: Inception
ORIGINAL SCORE
John Powell - How to Train Your Dragon
Hans Zimmer - Inception
Alexandre Desplat - The King's Speech
A.R. Rahman - 127 Hours
Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross - The Social Network
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Michael Giacchino -- Let Me In
SHOULD WIN: Alexandre Desplat - The King's Speech
MIGHT WIN: Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross - The Social Network
WILL WIN: Alexandre Desplat - The King's Speech
ORIGINAL SONG
"Coming Home" from Country Strong
"I See the Light" from Tangled
"If I Rise" from 127 Hours
"We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: "Photographs" from Greenberg
SHOULD WIN: "If I Rise" from 127 Hours
MIGHT WIN: "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3
WILL WIN: "Coming Home" from Country Strong
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